Journal Publications

Who Saves More, the Naïve or the Sophisticated Agent (with Max Groneck and Alex Zimper), 2021, accepted for publication in: Journal of Economic Theory. Earlier version: CEPR DP16412,

Higher-Order Income Risk over the Business Cycle (with Christopher Busch)Supplementary Appendix, International Economic Review,

Homeownership Rates, Housing Policies, and Co-Residence Decisions (with Nils Grevenbrock and Nawid Siassi), accepted for publication in: Macroeconomic Dynamics, pp. 1-24, doi:10.1017/S136510052300038X.

Preventing Reforming Unequally (with Axel Börsch-Supan, Klaus Härtl and Duarte N. Leite), conditionally accepted for publication in: Journal of Population Economics, 36:pp. 2889–2924. Appendices

The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures (with Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, André Kurmann, Dirk Krueger,  Etienne Lalé and Irina Popova), IMF Economic Review; DOI information: 10.1057/s41308-022-00196-2 

The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures (with Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Dirk Krueger and Irina Popova), Economic Journal, vol 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
Cited in: The Economic Report of the President.

Optimal Taxes on Capital in the OLG Model with Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Income Risk (with Dirk Krueger and Sergio Villalvazo), Journal of Public Economics (2021)
Appendix. Complete document.

Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs (with Nils Grevenbrock, Max Groneck und Alexander Zimper), International Economic Review (2021).
DOI information: 10.1111/iere.12497

Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave (with Christopher Busch, Zainab Iftikhar, Dirk Krueger and Irina Popova), Journal of Monetary Economics (2020). 113, pp. 28-55. Appendix

Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, and the Welfare Effects of Social Security (with Daniel Harenberg),  International Economic Review (2019).
DOI information: 10.1111/iere.12365
Supplementary Appendix

Endogenous Grids in Higher Dimensions: Delaunay Interpolation and Hybrid Methods (with Matthias Schön), Computational Economics (2018), 51: 463.

A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs (with Max Groneck and Alex Zimper), Journal of Economic Theory (2016), pp. 137-180.
DOI information: 10.1016/j.jet.2015.12.008 

On the Optimal Provision of Social Insurance: Progressive Taxation versus Education Subsidies in General Equilibrium (with Dirk Krueger)Journal of Monetary Economics (2016), Volume 77, pp 72-98.
DOI information: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.11.002

Social Security in an Analytically Tractable Overlapping Generations Model with Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk (with Daniel Harenberg), International Tax and Public Finance (2015), Volume 22, Issue 4, pp 579-603.
DOI information: 10.1007/s10797-015-9368-x.
Supplementary Appendix

Aging and Pension Reform: Extending the Retirement Age and Human Capital Formation (with Axel Börsch-Supan and Edgar Vogel),  Journal of Pension Economics and Finance (2017), Vol. 16, Issue 1, pp. 81-107.
DOI information: 10.1017/S1474747215000086

Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions (with Axel Börsch-Supan and Klaus Härtl), American Economic Review P&P (2014), 104(5): 224-29.

Biased Bayesian Learning and the Risk-free Rate Puzzle (with Alex Zimper), Journal of Economic  Dynamics and Control (2014), 39, 79-97.

Optimal Progressive Labor Income Taxation and Education Subsidies When Education Decisions and Intergenerational Transfers are Endogenous (with Dirk Krueger), American Economic Review P&P (2013), 103(3), 496-501.

A Parsimonious Model of Subjective Life Expectancy (with Alex Zimper), Theory and Decision (2013), 75(4), 519-541. Appendix.

A Decision-theoretic Model of Asset-price Underreaction and Overreaction to Dividend News (with Alex Zimper), Annals of Finance (2013), 9, 625-665.

Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare (with Thomas Schelkle and Edgar Vogel), Review of Economic Dynamics (2012), 15(1), 94-107. Appendix.

Sharing Demographic Risk: Who is Afraid of the Baby Bust? (with Michael Reiter), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2010), 2(4), 83-118. Supplementary Appendix.

Mortality, Fertility, Education and Capital Accumulation in a Simple OLG Economy (with Edgar Vogel), Journal of Population Economics (2010), 23(2), 703-735. Errata.

On Attitude Polarization under Bayesian Learning with Non-additive Beliefs (with A. Zimper), Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (2009), 39, 181-212.

Living Standards in an Aging Germany: The Benefits of Reforms and the Costs of Resistance (with Axel Börsch-Supan), Journal of Economics and Statistics (2009), 229(2+3), 163-179.

Aging, Asset Markets, and Asset Returns: A View from Europe to Asia (with Axel Börsch-Supan), Asian Economic Policy Review (2009), 4(1), 69-92.

On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare (with Dirk Krüger), Journal of Monetary Economics (2007), 54(1), 49-87.

The Gauss-Seidel-Quasi-Newton Method: A Hybrid Algorithm for Solving Dynamic Economic ModelsJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2006), 31, 1610-1632.

Investment behavior under ambiguity: The case of pessimistic decision makers (with A. Zimper), Mathematical Social Sciences (2006), 52, 111-130.

Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model (with A. Börsch-Supan and J. Winter), Economica (2006), 73, 625-658.

Rational expectations and ambiguity: A comment on Abel (2002) (with A. Zimper), Economics Bulletin (2006), Vol. 4 no. 2, 1-15.

The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries (with T. Sloek), Topics in Macroeconomics (2004), 4(1), Article.

Pension Reform, Capital Markets, and the Rate of Return (with A. Börsch-Supan, F. Heiss and J. Winter), German Economic Review (2003), 4(2), 151-181.

Policy Papers

Mindestrente: Absicherung gegen Altersarmut und notwendiger Baustein für weitere Reformen (with J. Geyer and P. Haan), DIW Aktuell 72

Emerging Evidence of a Silver Lining: A Ridge Walk to Avoid an Economic Catastrophe in Italy and Spain; in SAFE  White Paper No. 67 (2020). Updated Version

Das Deutsche Rentensystem: Thesen zur derzeitigen Diskussion um „Umkehr“-Reformen in: SAFE White Paper No. 40, 2016

Demographischer Wandel: Kapitalrenditen, Löhne und Verteilungswirkungen In: Fugger, C., Hannappel, S., Hrsg. (2016): Demographischer Wandel – Fakten, Prognosen, Herausforderungen und Chancen, Sammelband zur Ringvorlesung im Wintersemester 2014/2015 an der Universität zu Köln


No Brainers and Low-Hanging Fruit in National Climate Policy (Francesco Caselli, Alexander Ludwig, Rick van der Ploeg), 08 October 2021


The Macroeconomics of Demographic Change – Essays on Economic Modelling, Dissertation, University of Mannheim,

Demographie und Kapitalmärkte: Die Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf Aktien-, Renten- undImmobilienvermögen (with A. Börsch-Supan and M. Sommer), Deutsches Institut für Altersvorsorge, DIA, 2003.

Rentenreform im globalen Kontext, Peter Lang, Frankfurt, 2002.

Other Publications

Asset Market Meltdown in Sicht?, in: Michael Freytag (ed.), Verbrauchervielfalt: Chancen des demografischen Wandels für Konsum und Finanzen, 290 – 301, 2013.

Old Europe is Aging: Reforms and Reform Backlashes (mit Axel Börsch-Supan), in: J. Shoven (ed.), Demography and the Economy. University of Chicago Press, 169 – 204, 2011.

Aging, Asset Markets, and Asset Returns: A View from Europe to Asia (with Axel Börsch-Supan), Asian Economic Policy Review , 4(1), 69-92, 2009.

Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and Their Differential Effects on the elfare of Generations (with Dirk Krüger and Axel Börsch-Supan), NBER Working Paper 13185, 2007,forthcoming in: Brown, J., J. Liebmann and D. A. Wise (eds.): Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, University of Chicago Press.

Demography, savings, and global capital markets (with A. Börsch-Supan and J. Winter), in: M. Heise and V.Wieland (eds.): Capital markets in the long term: Demography, economic development, and funded pensionsystems, Frankfurt, Center for Financial Studies, pp. 107-126, 2005.

Ageing, the German rate of return and global capital markets (with A. Börsch-Supan and J. Winter), Demography Special, Deutsche Bank Research, December 4, 2003.
German version available as: Alterung, deutsche Renditeentwicklung und globale Kapitalmärkte, Demografie Spezial Nr. 273, Deutsche Bank Research, June 16, 2003.

Aging and international capital flows (with A. Börsch-Supan and J. Winter), in: A. Auerbach and H. Hermann(eds.): Aging, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy, Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 56-83, 2002.

Case study: Vorsicht Falle: Investitionen in den neuen Bundesländern (with D. Guilini), in: A. Börsch-Supan and R Schnabel: „Volkswirtschaft in fünfzehn Fällen“, Gabler Verlag, Wiesbaden, 1998.